Food prices likely to 'marginally' rise in 2012 in Canada

TORONTO - Canadians are expected to get "a welcome break" at the supermarket cash register next year as the rise in food prices slows, the University of Guelph said Monday in its annual forecast.

"It is good news for the short term," said Sylvain Charlebois, the university's associated dean of research and development and a co-author of the study.

"Certainly for Canadians with less means, it will allow them to recalibrate their budget and focus on other things than food."

In their 2012 Food Price Index, Charlebois and economics professor Francis Tapon predict that general food prices will increase about two per cent from Dec. 1 this year through the end of November 2012.

A year ago, the university predicted food price inflation of between five and seven per cent — just slightly above the actually overall rate of 4.9 per cent in the 12-month period.

Next year, meat products are expect to see a price increase of about three per cent, compared to a rise of about five per cent in 2011, while the price of fresh vegetables will go up one to three per cent in 2012, versus a jump of 10 per cent this year.

Also, baked goods prices are expected to rise three per cent, much slower than the seven per cent increase this past year.

"I think 2012 will provide Canadian consumers with a welcome break," Charlebois said in a telephone interview.

Food prices have been on the upswing in recent years as input costs have surged, including for fuel used to transport goods and for commodities generally.

"We saw significant increases in retail prices (in 2011), primarily because input prices went up significantly," Tapon said in the report.

However, in the coming year, the country's major food distributors — Loblaw (TSX:L), Metro (TSX:MRU.A) and Sobeys (TSX:EMP.A) — are expected to have a much tougher time putting through price increases in the face of a slowing global economy and relentlessly increasing competition.

Producers continue to benefit from strong prices as commodity prices have stabilized over the last six months "so we're not too concerned about farmers, per se," Charlebois said.

"I'm mostly concerned about distributors. So in the middle of the supply chain... these players will be under a lot of pressure moving forward because of the changing landscape in the food industry."

Although input cost remain relatively high aggregate demand will soften because of the overall economy, he said.

"The unemployment rate is relatively high and wages aren't going up so they'll feel hard pressed to increase prices at retail," he said.

"As well, Wal-Mart has certainly sent signals in 2011 that it intends to become more competitive in Canada, opening new supercentres and also in 2013 Target is planning to enter the Canadian market."

"And, unlike in the United States, Target intends to grab a significant market share in Canada in food, which is interesting," Charlebois said.

Market penetration for Target is expected to be quite high, aided among other things by the strategic alliance the American discount giant signed with Sobeys in September.

For Sobey's, whom Charlebois described as No. 2 in Canada behind Loblaw, "this is really about becoming No. 1 so its going to be interesting to watch as things unfold in 2012 and 2013."

Among the variable that can greatly affect food price predictions, the most important is weather.

"Climate (floods, drought and the like) can actually destroy our entire forecast exercise," Charlebois said.

But one variable that is expected help keep the lid on prices this year is oil, which remains well under US$100 a barrel amid an uncertain world economic outlook.

"Because of the sluggish global economy we expect oil demand to be somewhat subdued, which likely will have an impact on the food-to-fuel ratio," he said.

"So we don't expect farmers to grow for fuel because oil remains affordable, basically. When we saw a barrel of oil at US$146 — at a record high — that's when we really saw a significant increase of the major commodities be traded in Chicago and Kansas City."

SC: House allotment price can’t be hiked after 7 yrs

New Delhi, December 12
The Haryana Housing Board cannot ask the beneficiaries to pay any additional cost seven years after allotting the houses, even if the Board has to shell out higher compensation to the landowners at a later stage for acquiring the land, the Supreme Court ruled today.

The rationale for the seven-year deadline “was that once the allottee pays the total price, he may not be subjected to the burden of additional cost after a number of years,” a Bench comprising Justices GS Singhvi and SJ Mukhopadhaya held in a verdict.

The apex court gave the ruling while allowing the appeals filed by some of those who had been allotted houses at Sonepat in 1978 under the schemes meant for economically weaker sections (EWS), lower income group (LIG) and middle income group (MIG).

The allottees had challenged the Board’s additional demand raised against them 10 years after the allotments. The Punjab and Haryana High Court had rejected their pleas at the level of the single judge as well as the Division Bench, prompting them to approach the Supreme Court.

The Bench accepted the contentions of the Board and the Haryana Government that the allotment letters as well as the Hire Purchase Tenancy Agreement (HPTA) had made it clear that the price of the tenement specified at the time of allotment was subject to revision in the light of the final bills representing the cost of construction or the land.

However, it was the Board which had “consciously incorporated” in the Hire Purchase Tenancy Agreement a prohibition against change in the price after seven years from the date of allotment of tenements, the Bench pointed out.

After including the seven-year deadline, “there is no reason why it should not be asked to honour the commitment made to the allottees that they will not live under the fear of being asked to pay additional price after an indefinite period,” the Bench reasoned.

Unfortunately, the high court did not give due weightage to the prohibition clause, the apex court noted. The wordings of the price regulations made it clear that the “Board had kept in view all the eventualities which could lead to an increase in the cost of land made available for construction of the tenements and yet it thought proper to put an embargo against the revision of price after seven years”.

“In the result, the appeals are allowed ...and the demand notices issued by Estate Manager, Sonepat, quashed,” the SC ruled.

MINORITIES IN PAK

RS members express concern

New Delhi, December 12
Rajya Sabha (Council of States is the upper house of the Parliament of India.)members today expressed concern over fear and insecurity under which minorities, particularly Hindus and Sikhs, lived in Pakistan. Cutting across party lines, they asked the government to take up the issue with Islamabad with some even wanting India to take up the issue at an international forum like the UN.

Worry over atrocities on minorities in Pakistan and killings of some Hindus recently, raised during Zero Hour by Avinash Rai Khanna (BJP), not just found unequivocal support from his party colleagues, but also MS Gill of the Congress. Gill urged the government to take up the issue seriously. Khanna was in fact supported by members from all political parties, associating themselves with the issue.

Khanna said Pakistan’s Human Rights Commission in its recent report had pointed out such atrocities on minorities, including Hindus, Sikhs and Christians, whose property and life were not secure in that country.

The BJP member said many Hindu families from Pakistan had been camping in Amritsar, Jalandhar, Rajpura and Khanna for quite some time, refusing to return home despite expiry of their visas. They are seeking Indian citizenship.

Around 28 families had also settled in Delhi’s Majnu Ka Tilla area, seeking Indian citizenship, Khanna said. Lamenting that the Indian government was not doing anything in support of minorities in Pakistan he added that “the government has not spoken a word in their support”.

SS Ahluwalia (BJP) joined his colleague and asked the government to take up the matter with the United Nations.

‘Provide night shelters to those without roof’

SC directs northern states to act immediately

New Delhi, December 12
Making it clear that not a single person should be allowed to die for lack of protection against the winter this season, the Supreme Court today directed Punjab, Haryana and other northern states to immediately provide night shelters with adequate amenities to all those living without a roof over them.
A Bench comprising Justices Dalveer Bhandari and Dipak Misra passed a series of separate orders in respect of each state, asking the Chief Secretaries to file affidavits by January 3 confirming compliance with its rulings. Even if the states were not in a position to provide permanent night shelters immediately, they should make arrangements for temporary shelters which should have water, sanitation, electricity and other basic amenities, the Bench clarified.
The Bench explained the urgency, citing the onset of the winter season and the need for protecting the lives of people as guaranteed under the Constitution.
Haryana said it had 51 night shelters, of which only two were permanent. “Why are you not constructing permanent night shelters,” the Bench asked. The state counsel said four were under construction and assured the court that he would consult the government and come back.
Senior counsel Colin Gonsalves, arguing for the PIL petitioner (People’s Union for Civil Liberties), complained that Punjab had filed a very vague affidavit, without specifying how many night shelters were in place. The state merely had given the number of “identified, earmarked and sanctioned” cases of night shelters, he explained. At this, the Bench passed a separate order asking the Chief Secretary to file by January 3 a detailed status report.
Jammu and Kashmir claimed that the state did not have a single person without any shelter. The Bench asked the PIL petitioner to verify and give its response.
Asking the state governments to ensure that no one was made to sleep on pavements, parks or other open public places, the apex court also passed similar orders in respect of several states, including Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Uttarakhand and Maharashtra.
The Bench would review the status again on January 9.

Punjab report ‘vague’

Punjab merely had given the number of “identified, earmarked and sanctioned” cases of night shelters. The Bench has asked the Chief Secretary to file a detailed status report by January 3.

Make permanent ones: haryana told

Haryana said it had 51 night shelters, of which only two were permanent. Another four are under construction. “Why are you not constructing permanent night shelters,” the Bench asked.

Big claim by Jammu & Kashmir

Jammu and Kashmir claimed that the state did not have a single person without any shelter. The Bench asked the PIL petitioner to verify and give his response.

China to open military base in Indian Ocean

Beijing, December 12
In a move that may cause unease in India, China today announced that it will set up its first military base abroad in the Indian Ocean island of Seychelles to “seek supplies and recuperate” facilities for its navy.

The naval fleet may seek supplies or recuperate at appropriate harbours in Seychelles or other countries as needed during escort missions, the Chinese Defence Ministry announced here today.

China has already cemented its foothold in the Indian Ocean by signing contract with the UN backed International Seabed Authority to gain rights to explore polymetallic sulphide ore deposit in Indian Ocean over the next 15 years.

The contract awarded this year to a Chinese association exclusive rights to explore a 10,000-sq-km of international seabed in the southwest Indian Ocean.

The base in Seychelles is regarded significant by analysts as China is about to launch its first aircraft carrier. It is currently undergoing final trials.

Playing down its significance, Chinese Defence Ministry statement today said it is international practice for naval fleets to re-supply at the closest port of a nearby state during long-distance missions.

Apparently commenting on a recent report that China will establish a military base in Seychelles, it said Chinese naval fleets have re-supply facilities at harbours in Djibouti, Oman and Yemen since China sent its first convoy to the Gulf of Aden in 2008.

The decision to establish its first naval base abroad was taken during Chinese Defence Minister Gen Liang Guanglie’s goodwill visit to Seychelles earlier this month.

During the visit, Seychelles Foreign Affairs Minister Jean-Paul Adam said his country has invited China to set up a military base on the archipelago to beef up the fight against piracy.

“We have invited the Chinese government to set up a military presence on Mahe to fight the pirate attacks that the Seychelles face on a regular basis,” Adam was quoted as saying in the media reports.

“For the time being China is studying this possibility because she has economic interests in the region and Beijing is also involved in the fight against piracy,” he said.

During Liang’s visit, the two sides exchanged views on their countries’ and armies’ cooperation, as well as on the global and regional situation, state-run Xinhua news agency reported.

Seychelles appreciates China’s efforts to maintain safe navigation on the Indian Ocean, as well as the support it has granted to Seychelles, the ministry said.