Anti-incumbency to be major factor in Punjab Assembly elections

CHANDIGARH: With just less than three weeks to go for the assembly elections in Punjab, the ruling SAD-BJP alliance and major opposition party Congress are engaged in hectic election campaign to woo the voters of the state. Going by the fluctuating mood of the voters, both SAD and Congress seem to be apprehensive about their chances in the ensuing elections.

Irrespective of the electoral outcome, anti-incumbency is a major factor in the Punjab assembly elections. Anti-incumbency is such a big factor in Punjab politics, that in the history of state no party has been able to repeat victory and retain power in two consecutive elections       

In view of this, especially for SAD-BJP combine, it is arduous task to repeat its performance of 2007 in 2012 assembly elections. The Akalis had been beating the drum of massive development made under its regime as its major poll plank to make the voters woo in its favour.  However, it would be matter of surmising that to what extent, it would cut ice with the people of the state. Besides this, the Akalis need to do lot of convincing that why the people should vote for them again.  

Though Congress, the opposition party is sailing in different boat but it has also to contend with anti-incumbency against UPA government at centre. Though the anti-incumbency at national level has not much impact in the state politics, Anna campaign against corruption has made national anti-incumbency more pronounced due to which Congress needs to work harder.

Congress which held clear advantage at the initial stage seems to have messed up certain things in terms of great deal of delay and drama in distribution of tickets which led to disturbing the momentum of election campaign of the party.   

This election would also test Sukhbir Badal’s political acumen as in the previous assembly elections (2007) SAD-BJP had advantage due to anti-incumbency managed to oust the then Congress government. In addition to this, Sukhbir was given a lot of credit for having revitalized the demoralized SAD cadre.However, in the upcoming assembly elections, the SAD facing anti-incumbency, Sukhbir needs to make great deal of effort to neutralize this factor and pave the way for Akalis to retain power.     

Besides SAD and Congress,Manpreet Badal's People Party of Punjab (PPP)-led Sanjha Morcha in which the PPP and the Akali Dal (Longowal) joined hands with the CPM and CPI, would find the going tough to show  its effectiveness and make its presence felt  at the forthcoming Assembly polls. 

The political observers feel that PPP could be a spoil sport both for Congress and Akalis. They feel that in case anti-Akali votes go to PPP instead of Congress, it would benefit Akalis. Similarly, the undercutting of pro-Akali votes by PPP could benefit Congress.