Alison Redford’s victory a plus for Stephen Harper

OTTAWA—Alberta premier Alison Redford’s come-from-behind majority victory is a timely reminder that voters — when faced with what they see as a clear and present danger to their values — will trample party lines to coalesce around the strongest alternative option on offer.
Some issues simply transcend partisan politics.
That has been demonstrated time and again on Quebec’s unity front. In the aftermath of the closely won 1995 referendum, federalist voters on the left and the right rallied to the dominant federal Liberal flag in response to a perceived sovereignist threat.
On Monday in Alberta, the polarization took place along a different but increasingly familiar line in 21st century Canada: the divide that separates progressive voters from red-meat conservatives.
The Alberta Liberals were a casualty of this polarization. As scores of centrist sympathizers deserted the party for Redford’s Tories, its share of the popular vote went down — from 26 per cent four years ago to 10 per cent on Monday.
For some of those centrist voters, it was a second date in less than a year with the Progressive Conservatives. Last fall, the same constituency ensured Redford’s upset leadership victory.
With the party’s former right flank in official opposition under the Wildrose flag, Redford’s Tories have, to all intents and purposes, been re-centered.
As of Monday night, Redford has also become the most influential red Tory in the country and a rare one that Stephen Harper can’t afford to ignore. They share the same home base and Alberta is central to his government.
Almost to a man and a woman, the architects of Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith’s failed bid belonged to Harper’s initial team.
While the Prime Minister himself stayed out of the Alberta fray, an overabundance of his past and present associates around the Wildrose party could make for an awkward relationship with Redford’s Tory government — at least initially.
But over the longer term, her victory stands to make Harper’s life easier than the alternative result would have.
Wildrose’s defeat comes at a time when some of the more vocal tenors of the right have become increasingly critical of Harper’s so-called centrist deviations.
Last month, some of the harshest attacks on the federal budget came in the shape of friendly fire from the conservative ranks.
But even in Alberta, winning an election on hard-right ticket did not turn out to be doable. And — more than ever — social conservatism is an electoral poison pill.
While Harper rose to power on the shoulders of those who make up the Wildrose’s strategic infrastructure, he ultimately owes his majority to tens of thousands of middle-of-the-road Ontario voters who routinely divide their allegiances between his Conservatives and Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals.
Overall, the ingredients of the Prime Minister’s majority are not that different from Redford’s and he can’t afford to risk Ontario to please Alberta’s most conservative elements.
A Wildrose challenge to the fiscal arrangements between Ottawa and the provinces, in particular in the matter of equalization, would have had Harper sitting on an uncomfortable Ontario/Alberta picket fence.
From a larger federal perspective, there are other significant side benefits to the Alberta outcome.
Redford wants to play a larger leadership role on the national scene on behalf of Alberta.
That’s a timely development, especially from a unity perspective.
Over the past few weeks, Smith’s pointed barbs at Quebec’s social model and her (over-simplistic) suggestions that it is living off Alberta’s wealth have been front-page news in the province.
At a time when Quebec is already dangerously estranged from the federal government of the day, a Wildrose victory stood to increase its growing alienation from the rest of the federation.
The victory of a premier who is for the first time able to speak for Alberta in French to Quebecers and to do so in a progressive language that they understand is positive news for anyone who believes the national conversation should amount to more than a dialogue of the deaf.

Norway custody row ends, kids back in India with their uncle

New Delhi, April 24
The two NRI children separated from their parents in Norway on grounds of negligence returned home today after a Stavanger court yesterday announced its verdict, giving their custody to their uncle. They later headed for Kolkata.
Minister of State for External Affairs Preneet Kaur was at the airport to welcome the Abhigyan (3) and Aishwarya (1), who were escorted by their paternal uncle, Arunabhas, and their Norwegian foster father.
Their return to India came after sustained diplomatic pressure mounted by the government and a protracted legal battle lasting almost a year.
The children were taken away from their parents -- Anurup and Sagarika Bhattacharya -- by Norway's Child Welfare Services in May last year on grounds of “emotional disconnect” and negligence. However, the parents of the children denied the charges, saying it was a case of cultural misunderstanding.
Welcoming the return of the children, External Affairs Minister SM Krishna thanked Norway for allowing the children to return to India. "They belong to India. They are Indian nationals. I am confident that their uncle will take care of them in the environment of their extended family in India," he said.
Family overjoyed
In Kolkata, Monotosh Chakravorty, the relieved grandfather of the children, thanked the government and media for their sustained efforts in ensuring their release. "I have been waiting for this day. I have been fighting to see their return. And now actually that has happened..we are very much happy," he said.
"I thank the Government of Norway and, in particular, the Foreign Minister for his constructive approach in resolving this humanitarian issue. I wish to congratulate the judicial system in Norway for taking such an enlightened decision. All is well that ends well," Krishna said.
Reacting to the children’s return, Ministry of External Affairs spokesman Syed Akbaruddin said New Delhi’s position in the matter had always been that the they be permitted to live in an Indian environment with their extended family.
“We hope the uncle will take good care of the two children,” he went on to state.

Alberta election: PCs steamroll past Wildrose Party

Edmonton, ALTA.—The Progressive Conservatives steamrolled past the Wildrose Party to win a majority term in Alberta, defying what all polls had said leading up to election night.

Premier Alison Redford won a victory Monday evening in an election that even die-hard Conservatives believed was going to be a loss. She had predicted, at best, a minority government. The biggest loser of the evening was Danielle Smith, leader of the Wildrose.

RELATED: Final standings in Alberta election

More on the Alberta election

“We found out change might take a little longer than we thought,” Smith said in her concession speech.

“I acknowledge we wanted to do better . . . Am I disappointed? Yeah. Am I discouraged? Not a chance,” she said, adding “the growth of Wildrose has been nothing short of remarkable.”

Heading into the campaign, Smith was leading in polls — as she had been since the beginning. But at a muted Wildrose Party headquarters in High River, Alta., strategists huddled and blamed the loss on NDP and Liberal supporters who were wooed by the PCs.

“That’s so disappointing. We were so certain there was going to be a change in goverment,” said Wildrose supporter Jeff Engel, who had voted earlier in the day for Smith, confident that she would be the next premier. “The vote got split. That must have been what happened. It’s too bad.”

Stephen Carter, campaign manager for Redford, told the Toronto Star before the premier officially made her victory speech that the Progressive Conservatives were in a position of playing catch-up.

“We started from zero and we’re very very happy with the returns and we’re happy we’ve earned the trust of Albertans,” he said Monday night.

Redford’s win came as a surprise to many given the talk about a desire for change.

At Redford’s Calgary riding earlier on Monday, voter Karen Crosby refused to reveal who she had cast a ballot for but made clear who she voted against.

“Let’s just say I voted for change,” Crosby said as she walked out of the polling station in the Southwest Calgary riding. “I don’t care if it’s a minority government as long as our present government isn’t in power anymore.”

But voters like Jane Oxenbury helped the Progressives hold onto their majority.

Oxenbury, who has voted consistently for the Liberals provincially and federally since the 1970s, voted for the Progressive Conservatives for the first time Monday.

“I really struggled because I’ve been a loyal Liberal supporter and here in Alberta that’s saying a lot because we never do well,” Oxenbury said. “But the Conservatives here are moving into becoming more liberal and the Wildrose is just too unknown and conservative.”

Alberta elections have rarely been as divisive as this one. The province’s political history has followed a similar pattern since the 1930s — parties stay in power for decades until a grassroots opposition party emerges; that party takes over and rules for decades until the next grassroots opposition party emerges.

The Progressive Conservatives was the grassroots party in 1971 when it took over from the Social Credit, ending its 36-year reign. In this election, the Wildrose Party, the new grassroots party, had hoped to follow the pattern.

Last fall, when Redford, an international lawyer who was seen as a moderate, became the elected leader after former premier Ed Stelmach resigned because of internal dissent within his caucus, the party had a slight bounce back in the polls. But the Wildrose, which steadily gained in popularity, continued its rise and ran a mostly error-free campaign.

“The Conservatives didn’t think we could mount the campaign we did and we didn’t know we would get the support we would get from the public,” one Wildrose strategist said before the results were out. The fledgling party received $2.3 million in donations for the campaign compared with $1.5 million for the Conservatives.

What seemed to have hurt the Conservatives during this campaign were the typical issues that plague a party that has long been in power, including a dormant political machine with little reason to fire up over the past four decades.

A Conservative strategist said moving to the progressive side of the spectrum made the party more representative of the views of Albertans and better able to convince NDP and Liberal voters in the province that a Wildrose majority was not in their interest.

The Wildrose Party became a factor after former Fraser Institute researcher and Calgary Herald columnist Danielle Smith took over as a leader in 2009, a year after the Alliance and Wildrose provincial parties merged. The new Wildrose grew rapidly in membership as some former Conservative supporters, Conservative MLAs and members fled the party over concerns it was moving to the progressive side.

“So what we ended up with is an Americanization of our Alberta politics,” said PC supporter Anita Loowell of Edmonton. “What we’ve got at that end, the Wildrose, is people who believe that private health care is okay, that people should look after themselves, that public education doesn’t matter and we’re all on our own. That’s not what I want.”

Wildrose supporter Alan Weenink, who voted for Smith in her riding of High River, an hour’s drive south of Calgary, sees nothing wrong with that. The Conservatives’ shift to the middle, partly in response to internal politics and partly to distinguish itself after the rise of the Wildrose, made it impossible for him to support the party he once backed.

“The people who were too conservative for the Conservatives left but look at where we’re at? We’re going to have real conservatives like Danielle Smith become the premier and a real conservative like Stephen Harper as prime minister,” he said. “The rest of the country won’t like it but that can’t be helped. We got to do what’s right for us here.”

But Conservative supporter Jennifer Forbes in High River said despite all the pressure from neighbours and others who tried to convince her that the Wildrose was the party of the future, she decided to vote for the PC candidate.

“The people who were telling me to go Wildrose seemed angry and wanted to keep things the way they were in the past,” said Forbes. “They kept telling me the Conservatives deserved to be thrown out of office but I wasn’t convinced the Wildrose should get the chance.”

'Self-inflicted wounds' that helped undo the Wildrose in Alberta election

EDMONTON - Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith, ahead in the polls for most of the Alberta election campaign, said her party suffered "self-inflicted wounds" in the last week that caused people to think twice. A look at the final days of the Wildrose campaign:

Allan Hunsperger and the lake of fire

The year-old blog post began circulating on the Internet as the leaders prepared for the final week before the vote. By Sunday, April 15, Smith was facing questions about it.

Edmonton-Southwest candidate Allan Hunsperger had written that gay people must change their ways or forever be damned. He used the Lady Gaga song "Born This Way" to build his argument.

"You see, you can live the way you were born, and if you die the way you were born, then you will suffer the rest of eternity in the lake of fire, hell, a place of eternal suffering," he wrote.

When the post made headlines, he pulled it down and offered an explanation. The blog was written as part of his work as a pastor, he said.

"I fully support equality for all people, and condemn any intolerance based on sexual orientation or any other personal characteristic."

Smith stood by her candidate, saying he understood the Wildrose had no plans to legislate on contentious social issues.

Hunsperger was not elected.

___

Climate change in doubt

The question was direct and came from a reader in an online leaders forum a week before the vote: what is your position on climate change?

"We have always said the science isn't settled," Smith responded.

Smith's position is held by some people on the right of the political spectrum, but it put her offside with many large players in the world.

The Tory-led government in energy-rich Alberta has long officially accepted the science behind climate change, as has the federal government. They are joined by the rest of Canada's provincial and territorial governments, the U.S., Mexico, the European Union and the United Nations.

Most scientific bodies, including the Royal Societies of Canada and the U.K., as well as the American Association for the Advancement of Science, also accept that human activity is changing the Earth's climate.

A recent study in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences surveyed 1,372 papers on climate and found at least 97 per cent of the most active climate researchers supported the standard model.

"I wonder if she thinks the flat Earth debate is settled?" asked University of Alberta ecologist David Schindler.

Smith reiterated her stance at a CBC leaders debate last Thursday and was roundly booed by the live studio audience.

___

The white advantage

The interview aired the same day Hunsperger's comments were making news, but it didn't get noticed by the broader public until Tuesday.

Calgary-Greenway candidate Ron Leech told a multicultural radio station that he had an advantage because he is Caucasian.

"When different community leaders such as a Sikh leader or a Muslim leader speaks, they really speak to their own people in many ways. As a Caucasian, I believe that I can speak to all the community," Leech said on CHKF-FM.

Leech apologized Tuesday and said he had misspoken.

Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi didn't like Leech's apology and suggested it was important to know what Leech really believed.

Smith stood by Leech. She said 30 years of service to the people in his constituency couldn't be undone by one mistake. But a video surface on YouTube last Friday in which Leech made similar remarks, suggesting what he said wasn't a one-off.

And Leech was not elected.

The ups and downs, highs and lows of a wild 28-day Alberta election campaign

Billboards picturing Alberta PC Leader Alison Redford, right, and Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith look out over traffic on Queen Elizabeth Highway II near Highriver, Alta., Thursday, April 19, 2012. Albertans go to the polls on April 23.

EDMONTON - A look at the twists and turns of a wild Alberta election campaign:

Day 1, March 26: Alberta Premier Alison Redford drops the writ setting voting day for April 23. The busty bus makes its late night debut. A picture of the Wildrose party bus, originally painted with a smiling Danielle Smith and the dual rear tires falling just below her neckline, is lampooned on Jay Leno.

Day 3, March 28: Redford's comments about the changing character of the province prompt Smith to suggest: "I think Ms. Redford doesn't like Alberta all that much." The calls for improved campaign decorum begin.

Day 4, March 29: Redford declares unconditional surrender on the so-called no-meet committee and transition allowances. She says all PC members of the committee will have to pay all the money back and she suspends the money given to members who leave politics. "I made a mistake on these issues and now I'm fixing them," she says.

Day 5, March 30: Conservative staffer Amanda Wilkie tweets: "If electDanielle likes young and growing families so much, why doesn't she have children of her own? #wrp family pack insincere #abvote."

Day 6, March 31: Smith issues a news release saying she and her husband tried, but couldn't have children. Wilkie resigns. Redford calls Smith to apologize.

Day 8, April 2: The Dani-dollar pledge: The Wildrose party promises to cut a cheque to every man, woman, and child, when energy revenues create a budget surplus. If things go according to plan, Albertans would get a $300 cheque in 2015.

Day 10, April 4: Conscience rights emerge as an issue. Smith won't say where she stands on the controversial issue of allowing public workers to opt out of tasks, such as marrying gay couples or prescribing birth control, because of moral objections. She says her party would set up a court system to handle complaints when they arise.

Day 12, April 6: The provincial funding of abortions enters the discussion. Smith says her party has no plans to legislate on the issue, but refuses to completely rule out Wildrose citizen-initiated referendums that could be used to bring such an initiative forward.

Day 13, April 7: Progressive Conservative candidate and Education Minister Thomas Lukaszuk says he was hit by a voter in a doorstep confrontation. The man says he was just trying to direct Lukaszuk off his property. Police are called in.

Day 16, April 10: After being dogged by social issues, Smith tells a candidates forum in her constituency that she is pro-choice and pro-gay marriage.

Day 18, April 12: The provincewide televised leaders debate features the three opposition leaders ganging up on Redford. The premier fends off the attacks while managing to get a few shots in of her own.

Day 20, April 14: Former premier Peter Lougheed speaks out in support of Redford and the Tories.

Day 21, April 15: The Wildrose face questions over an anti-gay blog post by candidate Allan Hunsperger. Last summer, the pastor wrote: "You see, you can live the way you were born, and if you die the way you were born then you will suffer the rest of eternity in the lake of fire, hell, a place of eternal suffering." He later posts: "I fully support equality for all people, and condemn any intolerance based on sexual orientation or any other personal characteristic." Smith stands by her candidate.

Day 22, April 16: Smith casts doubt on the widely accepted scientific theory that human activity is a leading cause of global warming. "We have always said the science isn't settled," Smith says in an online leaders debate organized by two Alberta newspapers.

Day 23, April 17: Wildrose Calgary candidate Ron Leech apologizes for suggesting he has an advantage in his constituency because he is white. Leech told a radio show earlier in the campaign that, as a Caucasian man, he speaks to the whole community rather than just members of his own ethnic group. Smith stands by her candidate.

Day 24, April 18: The mayors of Calgary and Edmonton pile on Leech and Hunsperger, panning their remarks.

Day 25, April 19: The CBC holds a leaders forum in front of a live audience in Edmonton. Smith is roundly booed and mocked for again questioning climate change science. Liberal Leader Raj Sherman casts the election as a choice between Progressive Conservative "bullies" and Wildrose "bigots."

Day 26, April 20: Faced with slipping poll numbers and simmering controversy, Smith offers her staunchest defence yet of Leech and Hunsperger. "I take it personally when accusations of racism and bigotry are aimed at me and at my party," Smith says.

Election Day, April 23: Progressive Conservatives win majority government, the party's 12th consecutive provincial election victory.

Courtesy: TCP

Alberta Tories defy polls and win 12th consecutive majority

Alberta PC party leader Alison Redford celebrates her win in the provincial election in Calgary, Alta., Monday, April 23, 2012. Redford led the PC Alberta party to another majority win beating out the new comer Wildrose party.

EDMONTON - Alberta’s Progressive Conservatives defied the pollsters Monday, winning a 12th consecutive majority government that will see them enter the record books as the unconquerable colossus of Canadian politics.

"Oh my! Oh my!" Redford told supporters at a rally in Calgary after the final vote totals were announced.

"Today, Alberta, you spoke, and you spoke loudly.

"And I want you to know I heard you."

Redford said the election was about a choice "to put up walls or build bridges."

"It was a choice about Alberta's future, and Albertans chose to build bridges."

Her Tories have been in power close to 41 years. By the time their new mandate ends, it will be 45.

They will then stand alone, surpassing the 1943-1985 Ontario PCs (42 years) and the Nova Scotia Liberals of 1882-1925 (43 years).

Redford's team took 61 of 87 seats compared with 17 for their Wildrose rival on the right.

The victory flew in the face of polls that had Redford's party trailing the Wildrose and its leader Danielle Smith for much of the campaign.

Redford's team appeared to benefit from soft Liberal supporters who switched to the Tories in a strategic swing.

In the final week there were suggestions homophobic and racist comments made by two Wildrose party candidates would translate into an intolerant government restricting the rights of women and minorities.

PC supporters took to the airwaves and social media to urge moderates to switch their votes to block a Wildrose win.

A website was even created featuring testimonials from young Albertans. One man said he would rather have rodents eat his face than vote PC, but was voting Tory anyway to block the Wildrose.

Raj Sherman's Liberal party, which had been the official Opposition heading into the campaign, saw its vote collapse into single digits with just five ridings, giving Tories back the vote support it had lost to the Wildrose.

Redford, speaking to reporters after her victory speech, reiterated that she doesn't rely on polls.

"The only poll that matters is this election one."

Smith won a seat in the legislature for the first time in the Highwood constituency south of Calgary. Her party dominated in the old Tory rural strongholds in southern Alberta plus some ridings in Calgary. They were shut out in Edmonton and northern Alberta.

Smith remained upbeat in her concession speech to supporters in High River.

"Tonight we found out that change might take a little longer than we thought," said Smith.

"We wanted to do better and we expected to do better. Am I surprised? Am I disappointed? Yeah. Am I discouraged? Not a chance.

"Albertans have decided that Wildrose might need some time to establish ourselves, and I relish the opportunity."

Brian Mason's NDP doubled the party caucus to four — all in Edmonton.

Mason said he was thrilled at the outcome for his party, but he was also quick to congratulate Redford on her victory.

"I never thought that (overwhelming win) was going to happen, but you can't count the PCs out," he said.

The Tories' previous 11 majorities have been measured in large or larger majorities. The last time they were threatened was by a resurgent Liberal party in 1993. But under new leader Ralph Klein, the Tories took 51 of 83 seats to 32 for the Liberals and the dynasty rolled on.

Redford was re-elected in her Calgary-Elbow seat. She was chosen last fall by party members as leader, but now becomes Alberta's first elected female premier.

Tory cabinet ministers Doug Horner, Thomas Lukaszuk, Diana McQueen, Jeff Johnson, Dave Hancock, Verlyn Olson, Frank Oberle, Cal Dallas, Fred Horne, Heather Klimchuk, Greg Weadick, Thomas Lukaszuk, Doug Griffiths, Manmeet Bhullar, George VanderBurg and Jonathan Denis were all re-elected.

Redford will need a new energy minister, however. Ted Morton went down to defeat, as did Tourism Minister Jack Hayden, Agriculture Minister Evan Berger, and Transportation Minister Ray Danyluk.

Political scientist Harold Jansen said the Tories peaked at the right time.

Jansen said the Wildrose, after making announcement after announcement in the early days of the campaign, found itself without anything to offer in the final stretch, and ended up on the defensive while the Tories gained ground.

He agreed that the Liberal collapse benefited the PCs. In the last days, Jansen said, many of the Tory campaign announcements weren't unlike those of the Liberals.

"If you closed your eyes and changed the voice, it started to sound like the Liberals," said Jansen with the University of Lethbridge.

"I think we've seen a restructuring of the party system where the PCs have claimed the centre."

Sherman's party took five seats, including his own in a tight race in Edmonton-Meadowlark. He congratulated the other leaders and Redford.

"They offered a good vision, and we agreed with many parts of that vision," he said.

Redford, who took over as premier six months ago from Ed Stelmach, has some fences to mend.

She ran on her record of spending increases and no taxes, promising millions of dollars to build more schools and family health-care clinics. She also promised to put up an extra $3 billion over the next two decades to further develop oilsands products and protect the environment while not raising royalties.

The Tories were taken to task for granting themselves the richest salaries for provincial politicians in the country – about $163,000 on average. But it didn’t end there. Over the last decade, the party quietly and broadly changed the eligibility rules allowing more than 20 retiring politicians to walk away this year with six-figure golden handshakes.

To top it off, the Canadian Taxpayers Federation reported last month that members of the government’s largest legislature committee, mostly Tories, had been receiving $1,000 a month but had not met in over three years.

Redford stopped the bleeding early in the campaign, promising to end the six-figure handouts and ordering her members who sat on the no-meet committee to pay it all back.

With a week to go, polls suggested the Wildrose was headed for a majority. But then Smith's party got hung up in the razor wire of social issues and she had to fight off critics who suggested her party had a hidden agenda.

The criticism firmed up around the issue of conscience rights — allowing civil servants to opt out of doing jobs they morally object to, such as marrying gay couples or prescribing birth control.

When there was a suggestion that her party could use a citizens-initiated referendum to end public funding for abortion, Smith disclosed that she was, in fact, pro-choice and pro-gay marriage.

As the campaign entered its final week, Wildrose candidates entered the spotlight. A year-old blog surfaced from Edmonton candidate Allan Hunsperger suggesting gay people would "suffer the rest of eternity in the lake of fire" if they didn't change their lifestyles. He pulled the comments down and Smith stood by him.

Wildrose Calgary candidate Ron Leech was forced to apologize for suggesting in a radio interview that he had an advantage in his constituency because he is white and could speak for everyone. Again, Smith stood by her candidate.

Both Hunsperger and Leech were defeated.

Smith herself was shouted down at a leaders forum last week when she questioned the science of climate change.

Environmentalists feared that a Smith government that still didn't believe in climate change would not push hard to clean up toxic emissions from the oilsands.

The Liberals took to calling the election a choice between Tory "bullies" and Wildrose "bigots."

Smith said in the end voters just weren't ready to take the giant leap her party was asking of them. She also acknowledged the Wildrose stumbled in the final days.

"I think we had a few self-inflicted wounds in the last week of the campaign, and maybe that was enough to make people pause and say, 'Hmmm ... maybe this group needs a little more seasoning,'" she said.

"I know that we do have to do a little more work to be able to earn the trust of Albertans. We knew it was a monumental task to try to go from four seats to government within 2 1/2 years of me becoming leader."